MEMO: New Polling In Vermont LG Race

To: Interested Parties
From: Ryan Munce, co/efficient
Date: October 20, 2020
Re: New polling in LG race

On behalf of Scott Milne’s campaign for lieutenant governor, co/efficient conducted a statewide survey of 584 likely voters through IVR and text from October 19-20 with a margin of error of +/- 4.05%. Despite tremendous political headwinds, Scott Milne is in a statistical tie with Molly Gray.

LG Ballot LG Image (Fav/Unfav)

Scott Milne: 37 3926 (+13)
Molly Gray: 43 4323 (+20)
Undecided: 13
Others: 7

Presidential Ballot

Donald Trump: 32
Joe Biden: 62
Undecided: 6

Key takeaways that lead us to believe that Milne will finish very strong and overperform among remaining voters:

  • Milne is leading among those who have yet to vote by nearly 2 to 1. (45-27)
  • The remaining undecided voters are disproportionately Republican and have a very favorable opinion of Milne (4917 Fav/Unfav)

In addition, the data shows Molly Gray is underperforming Joe Biden by nearly 20 points even as Scott Milne outperforms the top of the ticket. This shows that many Democrats and independents are deeply troubled by Gray. As a result, the race is within the margin, and can be considered a dead heat.

Finally, 54 percent of respondents say they have already voted. However, Secretary of State data shows around 143,000 ballots returned as of last night, meaning turnout so far is more like 40 percent. With early voters leaning significantly Democratic (68 percent), this overrepresentation of early voters accrues to Gray’s benefit in the sample, and likely skews the result in Gray’s favor. If we control for that potential oversample, it brings the LG Ballot to an even 39-39.